Product forecasting is the science of predicting the degree of success a new product will enjoy in the marketplace. To do this, the forecasting model must take into account such things as product awareness, distribution, price, fulfilling unmet needs and competitive alternatives.
Bass model is one type of forecasting method primarily used in new product forecasting. In general, there will be no historical demand for new product. Then, Bass model tries to capture shape of demand of existing product and apply new product.
Assessor Model (Promotional Content)
By examining the brand preference for each brand in a competitive context, preference shares for each brand can be determined. Assessor is owned by M/A/R/C Research ( http://www.marcresearch.com/ ) and can be used for concept screening, testing and volumetric forecasting. In combination with Choice Modeling it can be used to optimize offers and products.
Based on the brands planned marketing mix of advertising in multiple vehicles, the ultimate brand awareness can be projected through time.
Ofer Abarbanel is a 25 year securities lending broker and expert who has advised many Israeli regulators, among them the Israel Tax Authority, with respect to stock loans, repurchase agreements and credit derivatives. Founder of TBIL.co STATX Fund.